Ren Zeping: Why should I clearly advocate "new infrastructure" instead of starting from 4 trillion yuan?

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The following article is from Zeping Hong

Author: Ren Zeping

Forecast economic conditions, explain public policies, provide timely information and promote professional reporting. Source | Zheping Red Pavilion Author | Ren Zeping Xiong Zi Sun Wanying Liang Ying1 "New infrastructure" is becoming a consensus. This is the easiest and most effective way to deal with outbreaks and economic recessions. It is the winner and loser of the competition and reform and innovation of big countries under the Sino-US trade friction. This is not "four trillion yuan coming again" and "the old way again". On March 4, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting. The meeting pointed out the need to increase public health services, invest in emergency supplies, and accelerate the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G networks and data centers. Attention should be paid to mobilizing private investment. We are the earliest, firmest, and most explicit advocates of "new infrastructure." From 2018 to 2019, people have repeatedly proposed that "in urban agglomerations in metropolitan areas, population flows can be properly promoted in infrastructure construction, local debt requirements can be appropriately relaxed, and lifetime accountability is not implemented." January 2020 On the 31st, in the widely influential "Analysis of the Impact of the Epidemic on China's Economy and Policy Suggestions," it was proposed that "project reserves should be made in advance, infrastructure tax cuts should be made after the epidemic occurred, and metropolitan areas with population inflows "Proper and advanced infrastructure construction" The report "It is time to start a" new "round of infrastructure" released by the vibration industry on February 28 states that "in fact, the easiest and most effective way is to build new infrastructure . "Provoked industry discussions and capital market reactions. Some views confuse "new infrastructure" with "four trillion yuan" and "return to the old way." This thinking and understanding still exists in the last era. "New infrastructure" is advancing with the times. If the "new infrastructure" of the Chinese economy 20 years ago was railways, highways and bridges, then the "new infrastructure" that will support China's economic and social prosperity and development in the next 20 years will be technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence, data centers and the Internet. Infrastructure in the field of innovation, as well as infrastructure in the areas of upgrading of people's livelihood and consumption, such as education, medical care and social security. "Old infrastructure" has become surplus in some areas, especially in areas where populations are displaced, and reinvestment will consume manpower and money. Of course, in the long run, there is still a lot of space for roads and bridges to be built into the urban agglomerations. Otherwise, economic and social development will be restricted, causing serious problems such as traffic congestion and environmental pollution. "New infrastructure" is a short board for future development. The new investment areas include: 5G infrastructure, ultra-high voltage, intercity high-speed railway and intercity rail transit, new energy vehicle charging piles, big data centers, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, etc. These areas are the best combination of stimulating effective demand in the short term and increasing effective supply in the long term. They are also important tools for the Chinese economy to cross the middle-income trap and move towards high-quality development and innovative development. “New infrastructure” has huge investment potential and significant economic and social benefits. For example, the investment in 5G network construction in the future will exceed 1 trillion, which will promote the upstream and downstream of the industry chain and various industries to invest more than 1 trillion. More importantly, the construction of 5G networks will help promote the prosperity of new technologies and industries such as the Internet economy, artificial intelligence, digital economy, and Internet finance, and drive a new economy with an output value of more than 10 trillion. The commanding heights of technology lay a solid foundation. Over the past few decades, China has been the biggest beneficiary of the modest advancement of infrastructure construction, and an important manifestation of the institutional advantages of “focusing on the solution of major problems”. Without a reasonably advanced infrastructure, how could China have strong competitiveness? Without advanced network broadband construction, how can the Internet economy flourish? How can there be foreign investors who are optimistic about China and have poured into China? How can China integrate into globalization so quickly? How to form a strong global industry chain? how

Strengthen the supervision of public opinion and the transparency of information disclosure, establish the "whistleblower protection bill", make up for the shortcomings of medical institutions in reforming the medical system, strengthen the construction of emergency medical systems, increase the opening up of basic industries such as auto finance, telecommunications, and electricity, Efforts to protect intellectual property rights, improve the operating environment, and significantly reduce taxes and fees. In particular, social security contribution rates and corporate income taxes, neutral competition, the establishment of a new housing system and a long-term mechanism for residents, the development of multi-level capital markets, the establishment of new incentive mechanisms, and the mobilization of local governments and entrepreneurs. "New infrastructure" is not only an effective policy measure to deal with the epidemic and the economic downturn, but also a key killer of competition and reform of large countries under the Sino-US trade friction. This was also a victory and defeat for the great national rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. On March 3, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points. On March 4, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of China emphasized "new infrastructure construction", a large loss and a new infrastructure. I believe history will give the final answer. In times of crisis, the "new infrastructure" stands. Although it used to be controversial, today it is becoming a consensus between government and people. In the spotlight, it has mission and honor. As a clear advocate of "new infrastructure", this is a continuation of our previous views. In 2010, we participated in this study and came up with "speed changes." In 2014, we predicted that “the new 5% is better than the old 8%” and “5000 points is not a dream”. In 2015, we predict that “the altitude is high and the wind is slow”, “the economy is L-shaped”, “first-line house prices double”, and “the real estate industry focuses on long-term population and medium-term land and on short-term finance”. In 2017, we proposed the "new cycle". In 2019, we put forward the slogans of "Comprehensive Assessment of the Severity of the Current Economic Situation", "Deflation after Shelling" and "We Promote Reform and Opening Up". The era of "a good sword" is about to end and "a good sword" The era of the sword is not over. A good horse can run thousands of miles, but it cannot be expected to run forever. This series of viewpoints is based on a systematic in-depth study of the emerging economies of Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries in the past ten years, combined with China ’s actual major judgments, and gradually formed "Macro-transition" Analytical Framework and Practical Economics (see the monograph translation "From Miracle to Maturity: Korean Transformation Experience" "Research and Judgment" "New Cycle: Chinese Macroeconomic Theory and Practice" The Real Estate Cycle). How to hedge against epidemics and recessions? In fact, the simplest and most effective way is to build infrastructure, "new infrastructure". In the short term, this will help expand demand, stabilize growth and employment. In the long run, this will help release China's economic growth potential, enhance long-term competitiveness, and improve people's well-being. In recent years, what China needs most for economic analysis and research is objective, professional and pragmatic. At present, there are some "one size fits all, one layer at a time" thinking and understanding in society. Blacks or whites are emotional populist amateurs. Now, when it comes to infrastructure, some people will come to the top, saying it will stimulate public-based steel. This is a serious misunderstanding. In the past 40 years, without a moderately developed infrastructure, how could China have a strong competitiveness? Without advanced network broadband construction, how can the Internet economy flourish? However, India's economic development potential cannot be released. To a large extent, it is constrained by a shortage of infrastructure. Roads, bridges and health systems are in trouble. Historically, China issued additional special government bonds to strengthen infrastructure during the Asian financial crisis of 1998 and initiated large-scale infrastructure investments during the global financial crisis of 2008. Although there were many controversies and criticisms at the time, it now seems to be of great significance, greatly reducing transportation costs, enhancing the global competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry, and releasing the huge potential of China's rapid economic growth. The key to starting a new round of infrastructure construction is "new". we should Large-scale infrastructure investment. Although there were many controversies and criticisms at the time, it now seems to be of great significance, greatly reducing transportation costs, enhancing the global competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry, and releasing the huge potential of China's rapid economic growth. The key to starting a new round of infrastructure construction is "new". we should Large-scale infrastructure investment. Although there were many controversies and criticisms at the time, it now seems to be of great significance, greatly reducing transportation costs, enhancing the global competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry, and releasing the huge potential of China's rapid economic growth. The key to starting a new round of infrastructure construction is "new". we should

For areas with a large population influx, local debt requirements should be appropriately relaxed, and a lifetime accountability system should not be implemented to promote large-scale infrastructure construction. However, areas where populations are displaced should be treated differently to avoid significant waste caused by large-scale infrastructure construction. The second is a new topic. We should further open up market access to the infrastructure sector and expand major investors, especially those with a certain return. We should treat private capital equally. Third, new methods. In terms of infrastructure investment, public-private partnerships should be standardized and promoted to avoid exposure to shares and actual debt. Private capital should be introduced to increase efficiency and expand funding sources. Fourth, new fields. Adjust investment fields, make up for traditional infrastructures such as railways, highways, and rail transit, vigorously develop new infrastructures such as 5G, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, smart cities, digital economy, education, and medical care, and achieve stable growth through reform and innovation Develop innovative industries and foster new points of economic growth. Some people think that large-scale tax cuts and infrastructure construction will increase the local debt burden and bring huge pressure on fiscal balance. We believe that this view lacks long-term vision. When the economy faces huge downward pressure, fiscal balance will make business residents worse. Fiscal balance should be carried out over time, from fiscal balance to functional finance. As long as China's economy is booming and the people live and work in peace, why worry about future financial problems? How can finance be balanced if all industries are in a slump? There is also a view that "big city disease" should be controlled by controlling the size of large cities rather than improving urban infrastructure. Through the study of the urbanization history of dozens of representative economies in the past century, we found that the basic law of population flow is "people go high, people follow industry." Urbanization in metropolitan areas is the future. The general direction of population movement. In the past, it was misled by the "small town" plan economy thought of "controlling the size of large cities and actively and balancedly developing small and medium cities and regions", leading to a mismatch between people and land, a disconnect between supply and demand, high housing prices on the first and second lines, and high prices on the third and fourth lines High inventory. I remember 10 years ago and 20 years ago, there were many opinions that there were too many Beijingers. According to the statistics department's announcement, Beijing's resident population was 13.82 million in 2000, 16.95 million in 2008, and 21.54 million in 2019. In fact, according to big data, it may have exceeded 25 million. Twenty years ago, we planned this city based on a population of 15 million, planning land supply, rail transportation, roads, education, and hospitals. Now Beijing's population has increased by 10 million, and this is what we are seeing now. So the influx of people Proper infrastructure construction in cities is not only conducive to stable growth, but also a major good news for people's livelihood. Why not? Faced with the impact of the epidemic and competition between the great powers, taxes and fees must be reduced. Fish farming and resting with people are soft “new infrastructure”. China's overall macro tax burden (including income from land transfers) is higher than that of the United States, non-tax burdens are higher, people ’s livelihood expenditure is less, and social security levels are lower. 1) In 2018, China ’s “macro tax burden” was 35.2% in the entire range, higher than the US ’s 26.3%. After the US tax cuts, the macro tax burden may be reduced by an average of 0.8 percentage points per year, which will put pressure on China. Total fiscal revenue includes general public budget revenue, government fund revenue, state capital operating revenue, and social insurance fund revenue. A tax structure based on indirect taxes causes companies to pay large amounts of taxes. China's tax targets are primarily businesses, while the US's tax targets are primarily individuals. In 2018, the combined value-added tax and corporate income tax in China accounted for 52.8% of fiscal revenue, while corporate income tax in the United States accounted for only 3.7% of fiscal revenue. 2) China's non-tax income mainly includes special income, administrative fees, confiscation income and other income. China's non-tax income still accounts for a relatively high proportion

3) There is a gap in "for the people" taxation. China's low level of social security is in stark contrast to the high welfare of developed countries. A large amount of tax revenue is used to support the construction expenditure of a large group of government agencies and institutions. The welfare of the public is squeezed and the level of social security is low. 4) The labor costs, environmental costs and land costs facing enterprises continue to rise, further offsetting the impact of tax and fee reductions on enterprises. Due to the monopoly of the industry and the low openness of the service industry, Chinese enterprises are faced with the problem of high basic operating costs such as land, electricity, natural gas, oil, logistics, and financing. With the disappearance of the demographic dividend, the advantage of labor costs in international competition will decline. China's gasoline, diesel, natural gas, electricity, and land prices are 1.6 times, 1.3 times, 4.5 times, 1.3 times, and 2.6 times the US respectively. 5) Suggestion: Optimize the tax reduction and exemption methods, and change from the current VAT-based tax reduction model to reduce the social security rate and corporate income tax rate, enhance corporate awareness of mergers and acquisitions, and truly benefit enterprises and ordinary people. Promote the transition from indirect taxes to direct taxes. With the decline in the proportion of the secondary industry and the increase in the proportion of the tertiary industry, China's tax system should be reformed from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage, while taking into account economic construction and livelihood investment. China should improve the personal income tax system, expand the tax base, include some hidden income groups into the scope of tax collection, reduce the highest marginal tax rate, increase deductions for low- and middle-income groups, and prevent personal income tax from becoming a reverse-adjusted wage tax. Continue to promote the expansion of resource tax and adjustment of consumption tax revenue targets, give full play to the role of environmental protection, promote green development, and reflect the scarcity of resources. If the epidemic is a black swan, then the gray rhino is the one that is accelerating the ageing of the Chinese minority population. This is a real long-term challenge. Population policy adjustment is an important supply-side structural reform. In 2019, China's birth population will fall to 14.65 million, accounting for 12.5% ​​of the population aged 65 and over. 6%. The population will grow old before it gets rich. Japanese Prime Minister Abe sees childlessness as a national disaster. Russian President Putin said that Russia's fate and historical prospects depend on the population. The adjustment of population policy is related to the healthy and sustainable development of the population, and to the long-term growth of the Chinese economy and the national rejuvenation. 1) The birth population continues to decline. After the 2 million births in China decreased in 2018, the number of births in 2019 decreased by 580,000 to 14.65 million. The significant drop in births in 2019 is mainly due to the significant decline in the number of women of childbearing age, and the fertility rate is basically stable. From a long-term trend, due to the gradual disappearance of fertility accumulation, the number of women of childbearing age has continued to decline, and the current birth population is still in a period of rapid decline. It is expected that by 2030, it will further decline to less than 11 million. The direct costs of housing, education, and health care, the burden of the elderly, and high opportunity costs inhibit fertility, which is "affordable and unaffordable." 2) China's population is rapidly aging, and it will enter a deeply aging society by 2022. In 2019, China's population aged 65 and over will account for 12.6%, and the problem of getting old before getting rich is very prominent. When the proportion of the elderly population in the United States, Japan, and South Korea reached 12.6%, the per capita GDP exceeded US $ 24,000, while China only had US $ 10,000. From the perspective of development trends, China's population is aging at an unprecedented speed and scale. By 2022, China will enter a deeply aging society of more than 14%, and by 2033, it will enter a super-aging society of more than 20%. The aging population makes the contradiction between income and expenditure of social security increasingly prominent, and the pension gap will increase. 3) The demographic dividend has disappeared and the potential growth rate of China's economy has declined. The proportion of the working age population peaked in 2010 and is expected to decline by 23% in 2050 compared to 2019. From 2010 to 2018, China's economic growth rate declined USD 40,000, compared with only USD 10,000 in China. From the perspective of development trends, China's population is aging at an unprecedented speed and scale. By 2022, China will enter a deeply aging society of more than 14%, and by 2033, it will enter a super-aging society of more than 20%. The aging population makes the contradiction between income and expenditure of social security increasingly prominent, and the pension gap will increase. 3) The demographic dividend has disappeared and the potential growth rate of China's economy has declined. The proportion of the working age population peaked in 2010 and is expected to decline by 23% in 2050 compared to 2019. From 2010 to 2018, China's economic growth rate declined USD 40,000, compared with only USD 10,000 in China. From the perspective of development trends, China's population is aging at an unprecedented speed and scale. By 2022, China will enter a deeply aging society of more than 14%, and by 2033, it will enter a super-aging society of more than 20%. The aging population makes the contradiction between income and expenditure of social security increasingly prominent, and the pension gap will increase. 3) The demographic dividend has disappeared and the potential growth rate of China's economy has declined. The proportion of the working age population peaked in 2010 and is expected to decline by 23% in 2050 compared to 2019. From 2010 to 2018, China's economic growth rate declined

Second, actively respond to the aging of the population, build a high-quality elderly product and service system, and build a friendly elderly society. Speed ​​up the transfer of state-owned assets, make up for the social security gap, advance the national social security overall plan, and give full play to the important role of the second and third pillars in the pension security system. Establish a lifelong learning system for the elderly, encourage enterprises to retain and hire older employees, and delay the legal retirement age in a timely manner. Establish a high-quality service and product supply system for the elderly. Building a friendly society for the elderly. The best way to foster new points of economic growth is to open up and promote prosperity. Two examples are given: 1) China's industries are open to varying degrees. The more open the industry, the stronger its competitiveness. After China's entry into the WTO, the automotive industry has moved toward a "technology market" and protection policies. Therefore, the domestic market has basically fallen. Household appliances are actively opening to the outside world, rising rapidly and enjoying world reputation. At present, Chinese industry can be divided into three types of openness: The first is a relatively high degree of openness, such as most manufacturing and tourism industries; the second is a restricted category, which is mainly concentrated in basic energy and natural monopoly industries, such as electricity, finance, telecommunications, and medical care; the third is prohibited It mainly involves ideology and national security, such as the Internet information industry, news broadcasting industry and military industry. Since the reform and opening up, China's overall level of opening up has been continuously improved and great progress has been made, but there are still some shortcomings. First, in terms of tariffs, in order to protect emerging industries, the tariff levels of automobiles, cosmetics and high-end clothing are still relatively high compared to international levels. Secondly, in terms of investment, the OECD released the ranking of foreign investment restrictive index. China ranks sixth among the 70 major economies, behind Malaysia, Russia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and the Philippines. From 2010 to 2018, China's overall restrictive index increased by only 4 places. Third, in terms of intellectual property rights, China is weak in basic research and development, transparency in enforcement, protection of property rights, and awareness of rights protection. Judging from the positive and negative experiences of household appliances and automobiles, China should further open up to the outside world, believe in the market, trust entrepreneurs, believe in technological innovation talents, believe that the Chinese nation is a great nation, show openness and confidence, and release huge Development potential to promote high-quality development. 2) We may no longer ignore the progress of Korean movies. What are the descriptions of Global Trade Frictions and the Rise of the Great Powers, Parasites, The Furnace, The Busan, and the Flu, which have just won the Academy Award for Best Picture and four other major awards? We can no longer stop at the previous defense Understanding of "Winter Love Song". The movie censorship and rating system in South Korea is very good. Today, it finally blossomed. Only openness can bring prosperity. In the context of today's newly popular, let us look at the progress of Korean dramas, let us be more sober. Ten years ago, I accepted a special task at the National Research Center to study why South Korea's transformation was successful, creating the "Hanjiang Miracle" from a poor colony. Park Zhengxi, Jin Yongsan, Jin Dazhong, Roh Moo-hyun and other reformers, as well as numerous lawyers, journalists, and intellectuals. Bravely push the country towards economic, political and social modernization. This has strengthened our confidence in the success of China's economic and social transformation. This article does not represent the position of My Savage Girlfriend. Everyone is looking at newly diagnosed coronary pneumonia. He recorded 24 trillion deaths in the intensive care unit with 600 photos. Isn't this outbreak of a different coronavirus really accidental this time? The virus "spread" has quietly happened for many years. The virus is approaching the top of the core. The son of a close friend of the Supreme Leader was recruited. Can Iran, the world's most deadly, control the outbreak? Zhang Wenhong: The number of confirmed cases is zero. I am very worried.