Morning Session 0306 | New infrastructure will be an important starting point for reverse cycle adjustments

Zhu | CITIC Securities Chief Economist S 101051203003 Macro | The new infrastructure will become an important starting point for counter-cyclical adjustments. Under the influence of the epidemic, if the Chinese economy wants to return to the normal track as soon as possible and minimize the impact of the epidemic on the economy, it must make some efforts in countercyclical policies. The Politburo Standing Committee meeting on March 4 clearly raised the three major needs for the future. New infrastructure is the main starting point for investment drivers. We estimate that the overall growth rate of infrastructure investment this year may be at least about 8%. At present, the proportion of new infrastructure in total infrastructure investment may be between 10-15%, and the growth rate of new infrastructure will be higher than The overall growth rate is expected to further increase to 15-20% in the next 3-5 years. Risk factors: 1) the policy does not meet expectations; 2) due to different understanding of the new infrastructure concept, the size estimation is biased. Macro | 2020 US Election Outlook: Super Tuesday did not win, what should we pay attention to in the future? The results of "Super Tuesday" show that future Democratic nominations can basically be decided by Biden and Sanders. We believe these two may not win or lose in the first round of primaries (before June). Sanders' influence has not been eliminated. We still need to focus on the impact of electoral changes on health, energy, finance, technology, military and other industrial sectors. Emerging epidemics have disrupted Trump's approval ratings. It is recommended to keep an eye on electoral changes in swing states. Risk factors: the health of the candidate; the U.S. outbreak is rapidly deteriorating. Xu Yingbo | Chief Analyst of CITIC Securities Technology Industry S 10105110210041 Outlook | Cloud Computing and Data Industry Chain: Global SaaS Cloud Computer Cases Brought by American Research: Based on recent research on U.S. technology companies, we have restored the performance of U.S. technology stocks over the past 10 years, looking forward to future growth, and pointing out long-term investment opportunities in global SaaS cloud computing. SaaS's subscription payment model subverts the business model of traditional software companies. As cloud ratios increase, companies' sustainable revenues increase, and cash flow and profitability continue to increase. In addition, SaaS companies have better cross and collaborative sales capabilities and have the opportunity to drive further growth in corporate revenue. In the past 10 years, the U.S. stock market has spawned more than 30 SaaS companies with a market value of more than $ 10 billion, and the valuation of related companies has continued to increase. We believe that the opportunities of overseas SaaS companies are worth our learning. China's SaaS is still in its infancy, and it is expected that more software companies will turn to SaaS investment opportunities in the a-share market in the future. Risk factors: out of control of the global new crown epidemic leads to economic recession and a sharp decline in stock valuation centers; global macroeconomic uncertainty continues to increase risks; the risk of continued deterioration of trade conflicts; lower than expected economic growth rates, leading to the progress of corporate IT spending Slow down, etc. Xu Tao | Chief Analyst of CITIC Securities Electronics Industry S1010517080003 Electronics | The five questions and five answers to the impact of the epidemic escalation on global panel factories are mainly concentrated in China, South Korea and Japan. If the global epidemic continues to escalate, the supply and demand of the panel industry will decline. We believe that the contraction of the supply side is greater than the demand side, which is mainly due to the higher proportion of South Korea's production capacity, where the epidemic situation is more serious. The short-term epidemic escalation may lead to tight supply and demand and exacerbate the rise in panel prices. In the medium and long term, overseas production capacity will definitely withdraw and the industry structure will improve in the long term. BOE and TCL technologies are recommended. Risk factors: epidemic situation continues to escalate; supply chain and transportation risks; demand is lower than expected; changes in the macro environment, etc. John Yang | Chief Analyst of CITIC Securities Policy Research S 101051510001 New Energy Vehicle Policy | European power policy upgrade, China's high-quality supply chain benefits from one of the world's three major markets. EU carbon emissions standards and support policies in some European countries are under constant pressure The out-of-control of the global new crown epidemic has led to a recession and a sharp decline in stock valuation centers; global macroeconomic uncertainty continues to increase risks; the risk of continued deterioration of trade conflicts; lower-than-expected economic growth rates, leading to a slowdown in the progress of corporate IT spending, etc. . Xu Tao | Chief Analyst of CITIC Securities Electronics Industry S1010517080003 Electronics | The five questions and five answers to the impact of the epidemic escalation on global panel factories are mainly concentrated in China, South Korea and Japan. If the global epidemic continues to escalate, the supply and demand of the panel industry will decline. We believe that the contraction of the supply side is greater than the demand side, which is mainly due to the higher proportion of South Korea's production capacity, where the epidemic situation is more serious. The short-term epidemic escalation may lead to tight supply and demand and exacerbate the rise in panel prices. In the medium and long term, overseas production capacity will definitely withdraw and the industry structure will improve in the long term. BOE and TCL technologies are recommended. Risk factors: epidemic situation continues to escalate; supply chain and transportation risks; demand is lower than expected; changes in the macro environment, etc. John Yang | Chief Analyst of CITIC Securities Policy Research S 101051510001 New Energy Vehicle Policy | European power policy upgrade, China's high-quality supply chain benefits from one of the world's three major markets. EU carbon emissions standards and support policies in some European countries are under constant pressure The out-of-control of the global new crown epidemic has led to a recession and a sharp decline in the valuation center of the stock market; global macroeconomic uncertainty continues to increase the risk; the risk of continued deterioration of the trade conflict; economic growth is lower than expected, resulting in a slowdown in the progress of corporate information technology spending . Xu Tao | Chief Analyst of CITIC Securities Electronics Industry S1010517080003 Electronics | The five questions and five answers to the impact of the epidemic escalation on global panel factories are mainly concentrated in China, South Korea and Japan. If the global epidemic continues to escalate, the supply and demand of the panel industry will decline. We believe that the contraction of the supply side is greater than the demand side, which is mainly due to the higher proportion of South Korea's production capacity, where the epidemic situation is more serious. The short-term epidemic escalation may lead to tight supply and demand and exacerbate the rise in panel prices. In the medium and long term, overseas production capacity will definitely withdraw and the industry structure will improve in the long term. BOE and TCL technologies are recommended. Risk factors: epidemic situation continues to escalate; supply chain and transportation risks; demand is lower than expected; changes in the macro environment, etc. John Yang | Chief Analyst of CITIC Securities Policy Research S 101051510001 New Energy Vehicle Policy | European power policy upgrade, China's high-quality supply chain benefits from one of the world's three major markets. EU carbon emissions standards and support policies in some European countries are under constant pressure

China Peng | Chief analyst of the coal industry of CITIC Securities S1010512080004 Upstream hydrogen recycling: Demand is increasing, hydrogen "new infrastructure" has begun to gradually develop hydrogen fueled vehicles, and future policies are expected to tilt toward upstream hydrogen and other infrastructure, and construction of hydrogen refueling stations is expected Will speed up. In the long run, driven by economies of scale and localization of equipment, the operating profit of hydrogen refueling stations is expected to be guaranteed, and the industry's future profit space is expected to reach 7 billion yuan. At present, we can focus on those companies that have initially deployed hydrogen refueling stations and are expected to gain first-mover advantage. Risk factors: Subsidies and industrial policies are not progressing as expected; progress in reducing equipment costs at hydrogen refueling stations is slow. Tian Jian | Chief Analyst of Citic Securities Medical and Health Industry S1010515070002 Fan Jian Biological (300529): Perfusion leader, focusing on the entire blood purification industry chain. The company is a leader in China's blood perfusion industry, with significant market advantages and competitive barriers. The company obtained a PE55 valuation of the 2020 target value, which is equivalent to a target price of 101.38 yuan. This is the first underwriting and has been rated "overweight". Risk factors: the single product structure, the risk of falling gross profit margins, and the ability to research and develop and innovate further. Yao Ming | FICC Chief Analyst S 101051710001 Fixed Income | Five Questions and Five Answers: "Where will the new infrastructure go?" Affected by the epidemic, the reading pressure of China's economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 may increase, and policy stability will increase. The demand will also increase. The acceleration of the new infrastructure is expected to benefit 5G, industrial Internet, big data, UHV and other industries and their upstream and downstream industrial chains. However, the pressure of fiscal space under the influence of the epidemic may also be a constraint on subsequent new infrastructure. Based on this, we think it is possible to adjust the deficit rate and the additional limit of local bonds, and further relax monetary policy to support fiscal space. Luo Ding | Chief Analyst of Construction Cement Industry of CITIC Securities S1010516030001 Construction Cement | "New infrastructure" will squeeze "traditional infrastructure"? New infrastructure will be accelerated, and traditional infrastructure still has room for development. The new infrastructure is different from traditional infrastructure investors, they should develop together, not fight each other. According to the traditional infrastructure investment model driven by government funds, infrastructure will maintain a steady growth of 9% -10% in 2020. If policy-based financial instruments and special government bonds land successfully, the growth rate is expected to rise to 12. 2%. The combination of old and new kinetic energy will lead to stable and far-reaching development in the field of intercity high-speed rail and urban rail transit. Risk factors: Unsatisfactory financial expansion and unsatisfactory bids for railways and urban railways. Li Xiang | Chief Analyst of CITIC Securities Public Environmental Protection Industry S1010515080002 Utilities | Electricity: During the epidemic period, the monthly trading power decreased, and the long-term cooperation of annual electricity price reduced the risk exposure of the annual electricity price, and the monthly electricity price rose during the epidemic. The judgment that the market transaction has limited impact on the annual comprehensive electricity price on the power generation side has been maintained. The continued decline in coal prices will help to restore the net asset yield of thermal power companies. It is recommended that thermal power companies have a safe margin and attractive dividend yields. Huadian International, Huaneng International, Zhenneng Power, Jingneng Power, Jiantou Energy, Guodian Power, Universal Power, Yuedong Power, Funeng Shares, etc. Is preferred. In the context of global interest rate cuts, the value of core hydropower assets has been revalued. Sichuan Investment Energy is recommended as the top choice for leading hydropower companies. The valuation of these companies is at the bottom, and growth expectations are imminent, and electricity price risks are released ahead of schedule. Risk factors: The market's electricity consumption ratio exceeded expectations, and electricity prices fell sharply. Power demand weakens, coal price rises to Song Shaoling | Chief Analyst S 101051809002 New Energy Vehicle Quantitative of New Energy Vehicles | New Energy Vehicle Index, Focus

2) For ESG index investment, information disclosure is the prerequisite, and ESG evaluation is the basis. At present, the information disclosure of listed companies in the a-share market is generally good, and the ratings of listed companies have also been explored in various aspects. I believe that with the popularization of the ESG investment concept, ESG index investment will have a bright future. The meeting suggested that the discussion of the prospects for stable car consumption policies and investment opportunities should be held on March 6, 2020: 10:00 The analysis and exchange time of the investment value of Haoneng shares: March 6, 2020: 153: 0 Vanke A shares Interpretation of operating conditions: February 6, 2020: March 6, 2020: 16 :: 0 "U.S. Cloud Computing SaaS Company Journey" series of conference calls: February 27, 2020-March 26, 2020 Explanation of rating adjustment for 2020: The contents of "rating adjustment" are extracted from the publicly released securities research report (indicating the date is the time when the relevant securities research report was released) and are for summary reference only. The recent key report review strategy focuses on March 3-01-01 | Overlay on March 4. Strategic key points for the allocation of opportunities throughout the year 02-23 | Strategic priorities for the three major signals 02-16 | Policy relay at the end of the first round of pit-filling this year. The market is still rising Overseas Chinese Stocks 02-16 | "Local Economy" Rising: New Crown Popular Topics (4) Strategic Focus 02-09 | "Golden Nest" Three Configuration Mainline Strategic Focus 02-02 | "Golden Nest" Strategic Focus 01 -19 Towards "A Well-off Cow" | Best Timing Strategic Focus 01-12 | Inertia Still, Return Normal strategic focus 01-05 | Upward action can be weakened. Value style highlighting strategy focuses on 12-29 | High-low conversion, value relay strategy focuses on 12-22 | Style conversion, active position adjustment strategy focuses on 12-15 | Expectation Improvement, Winter Warming Strategy Focused on 12-08 | Capital Game's Cost Performance Significantly Reduced Overseas Strategy 12-08 | 2020 US Market Investment Outlook: Closing Bull Market Strategy Focused on 12-01 | Expected Bottom, Caterpillar Winter Defense CITIC Securities research provides industry information, letting you understand the world from your heart! Click "Read the original text" for more information.