Behind the new securities law is the struggle between the two countries: who will be born again and who will fall?

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As everyone in the wave, we are already in it. The full text is 4581 words. It takes about 8 minutes to read this article. The editor-in-chief of Chang Liang, Yang He. When the guns of the great changes of the times started, most people turned a deaf ear and regretted that they did not start in the future. The new Securities Law, which went into effect on March 1, is one such attempt. A drama of wealth creation and transfer similar to the reform of the housing system is about to begin. The housing market reform 22 years ago opened China's "gilded era" and made real estate rich. Twenty-two years later, the new securities law clearly provided for the reform of the "full implementation of the registration system", which gave birth to China's "progressive era" and will soon create a large number of Chinese new technology rich. Reform will never be a drizzle. Behind it is the distribution of interests that touches the soul. Only a few days apart, from the three reviewers (Note 1) coexisting with the "registration and approval system" to the finalization of the "full implementation of the registration system". At the end of the pen, the game is intense, with power penetrating the back of the paper. Some may ask how such an urgent and thorough reform can be successful given China's current legal environment, the quality of investors, and the quality of listed companies. Our answer is "yes". Because in the next ten years, China will never lose, and it will never lose. Policymakers are determined to win this crucial reform. Only by looking at the big picture can they find new areas. In 2015, Lou Jiwei, then Minister of Finance, delivered a speech entitled "Possibilities and Realization Paths for Medium and High-Speed ​​Growth" at Tsinghua University. ). "In the next five to ten years, we are likely to fall into the middle income trap. I even think it will be a five to five trap," Lou Jiwei pointed out. Over time, this year is "five years from now" Lou Jiwei predicted at the time. On February 28, the National Bureau of Statistics issued a communiqué stating that China's per capita GDP reached US $ 10,276 at the annual average exchange rate, breaking the US $ 10,000 mark for the first time. The per capita GDP is US $ 10,000, which exceeds most developing countries in the world. But it also means that China is now in the middle of a "middle income trap." Per capita GDP growth in China, the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The International Monetary Fund, in 2019, according to the World Bank's definition, "medium income" refers to per capita national income between $ 4,000 and $ 18,900. If it breaks the upper limit of the range, it can be considered a "rich country". According to China's current per capita GDP conversion, only the boat to the middle reaches. The so-called "middle income trap" refers to an economy that reaches middle income The inability to compete with low-income countries in wages, or with rich countries in the development of advanced technologies, or climbing up the global industrial division value chain has led to stagnant growth. The most typical examples are Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela and other Latin American countries. The consequences of falling into the trap are painful: young people see no hope, old people are not protected, middle-aged people work hard to maintain their livelihoods, the gap between rich and poor is wide, and society is hostile. This is something nobody wants to see. Historically, only more than 20 countries have successfully crossed the middle income trap. Most of them are the old industrial countries in Europe, the Middle East oil-producing countries that rose after the Second World War, and the "Asian Four Little Dragons" that correctly implemented industrial policies and took over the transfer of European and American industrial chains. The largest population was Japan, with a population of 120 million. If China can cross the middle-income trap of 1.4 billion people, it could be called "elephant dancing." However, the real challenge is not the absolute number of the population, but the demographic structure. "Why is it possible (sliding into the middle income trap)? Aging and labor reduction are coming too fast." Lou Jiwei pointed out in his speech. According to the "National Mid- and Long-Term Plan for Actively Coping with Population Aging" issued by the State Council of the Communist Party of China, China's population aged 60 and over reached 249 million in 2018, accounting for 17.9% of the total population. In the future, the degree of aging will continue to deepen. The increase in the elderly population means a heavy burden of social support and a rapid decline in the number of people of working age. Most demographers believe that China's "demographic dividend" will completely disappear 200 million people. If China can cross the middle-income trap of 1.4 billion people, it could be called "elephant dancing." However, the real challenge is not the absolute number of the population, but the demographic structure. "Why is it possible (sliding into the middle income trap)? Aging and labor reduction are coming too fast." Lou Jiwei pointed out in his speech. According to the "National Mid- and Long-Term Plan for Actively Coping with Population Aging" issued by the State Council of the Communist Party of China, China's population aged 60 and over reached 249 million in 2018, accounting for 17.9% of the total population. In the future, the degree of aging will continue to deepen. The increase in the elderly population means a heavy burden of social support and a rapid decline in the number of people of working age. Most demographers believe that China's "demographic dividend" will completely disappear 200 million people. If China can cross the middle-income trap of 1.4 billion people, it could be called "elephant dancing." However, the real challenge is not the absolute number of the population, but the demographic structure. "Why is it possible (sliding into the middle income trap)? Aging and labor reduction are coming too fast." Lou Jiwei pointed out in his speech. According to the "National Mid- and Long-Term Plan for Actively Coping with Population Aging" issued by the State Council of the Communist Party of China, China's population aged 60 and over reached 249 million in 2018, accounting for 17.9% of the total population. In the future, the degree of aging will continue to deepen. The increase in the elderly population means a heavy burden of social support and a rapid decline in the number of people of working age. Most demographers believe that China's "demographic dividend" will completely disappear

In the economic growth model, in addition to human input, capital is a visible variable. However, over the past 20 years, China has used the largest investment in fixed assets in human history to maximize the capital dividend, which has been a used force to boost GDP. If we want to continue to maintain mid-to-high growth and cross the middle-income trap, there is only one way forward for technological progress. The next decade is crucial. The scientific and technological revolution that cannot be missed in the past 40 years, namely the third scientific and technological revolution represented by computers, has contributed to the creation and transfer of wealth unprecedented in human history. The mobile Internet wave is its latest aftermath. From 2014 to 2018, the stock prices of new economy companies represented by Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft rose by 1 to 12 times, which is 1 to 12 times the S & P 500 index representing major U.S. companies during the same period. Cumulative net profit Hundreds of billions of dollars. Except for Amazon, the net interest rate of other technology giants has remained above 20% for a long time. The wave of mobile internet has created dozens of technology companies, worth hundreds of billions of dollars: from upstream chip design and manufacturers TSMC and Avida, to midstream mainframe manufacturers Apple and Huawei, to downstream application-level Uber and US reviews, All these have changed the fate of countless young people, from Wall Street in Silicon Valley in the United States to towns and villages in China. As Wang Shizheng, chief investment officer of GROHE, said, "Only by investing in the main channel of economic change, we can obtain rich and stable returns." "Investing in the main channel of economic change" The stage of technology can greatly increase productivity, from breakthroughs in basic science of energy and materials, to the manufacture of power machinery and mainframes, to the laying of operating systems and networks connecting mainframes. While the new technology revolution is changing the production and lifestyle of human beings in the application phase, it will also create unprecedented super companies, bringing about strong economic growth and a large number of employment opportunities. The wave of mobile Internet has completed the entire process in just over 10 years. However, this is only the end of the third technological revolution, and the next technological revolution has collapsed. There are more and more signs that the revolution in artificial intelligence technology based on data and computing power is expected to revolutionize human production, organization and lifestyle, just like in the past three technological revolutions-steam power, electricity and computers. According to the previous paradigm, humans are now in the middle of this revolution in artificial intelligence technology: In the field of power machinery, a large number of chip design companies represented by companies such as Avida are emerging; in the field of mainframe manufacturing, the market value of the new OEM representative Tesla has surpassed Ford and General Motors. With the gradual promotion of 5G commerce around the world, the host operating system and network companies represented by Waymo are committed to using smart driving technology and industrial Internet of Things technology to make smart cars and other increasingly large-scale smart phones Intelligent production equipment is connected. The application phase of the next technological revolution is coming. New era Microsoft and Apple are pregnant. Who can take the lead? As far as the most basic mass data storage and availability is concerned, China has surpassed the world and is comparable in the fields of artificial intelligence technology, chip design, mainframe manufacturing, and network laying. At the forefront of the next technological revolution, only China and the United States are expected to lead the next industrial revolution. It's unknown who killed the deer. But as everyone in the wave, we are already in it. In the volatile securities market, few people think that a card that China has not yet played is a backward capital market. The capital market should further accommodate technological innovation companies, support key core technological innovations, and improve the ability to serve the real economy (Note 3) In January 2019, the sixth meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensive and Deepening Reform will be finalized. For a long time, the industries with the highest market capitalization in China have been the financial industry represented by banks and securities dealers, as well as real estate, extractive industries and raw materials for commodities.

The company with the highest market value has changed from General Motors 50 years ago to high-tech companies represented by Microsoft and Apple. China's securities market is 50 to 100 years behind the United States in terms of industrial structure and has not been able to represent the development direction of China's advanced productivity for a long time. The newly established Scientific Innovation Committee requires listed companies to face the frontiers of world science and technology, the main battlefield of the economy, and the main needs of the country. (Note 4) From the perspective of financing structure, as of the end of 2019, the size of China's social financing stock was 251.31 trillion yuan, of which, as part of direct financing, the total balance of corporate bonds and domestic shares of non-financial companies was only 308,300. 100 million yuan, accounting for only 12% of the scale of social financing stocks in the same period. However, in western developed countries, the proportion of direct financing is mostly around 70%, while in the United States, it is above 80%. China's long-term bank-dominated indirect financing system is basically inclined to mature enterprises, with a large amount of asset collateral and stable cash flow, but it is not conducive to asset-light and high-risk growth enterprises. From the perspective of the life cycle of a company, debt-based direct financing is also not suitable for startups and growth companies that often have tight cash flows. However, the small and medium-sized enterprises that are gestating disruptive advanced productivity and shouldering the mission of disruptive innovation are China's new forces to seize the commanding heights of the next technological revolution. How to focus resources and give them enough food and ammunition? How do I attract resources from around the world? Technology maturity curve in 2019. Gartner: We think this is the root cause of the stock issuance registration system. After more than 10 years of exploration, it developed unexpectedly and quickly and was implemented within 7 months. Laggard capital markets are paying China every day to try to overcome the middle income trap. Ten thousand years is too long, catch every minute. If the wave of securitization of Chinese technology companies is imminent, what will happen next? Inadequate supply in the capital market is the main reason for the failure of market functions, and it is also the main contradiction facing the capital market. Liu Ti, deputy general manager of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, pointed out in his speech. The experience of the science and technology board shows that the average time from accepting an IPO application to completing the registration is less than 4 months, compared with 2 to 3 years in the past. The minimum standard for Chinese companies to go public has also changed from "net profit of not less than 80 million pounds" to allowing loss-making companies to go public. Zejing Pharmaceutical (688266) became the first unprofitable listed company in a share market. The listing of a large number of technology growth stocks may change the supply-demand relationship of the stock market, from supply to demand to supply-demand balance: Phoenix Nirvana, crow landing. In the long run, China's stock market will shift to the style of mature capital markets, namely the US and Hong Kong stock markets: Most stock trading will decrease sharply, prices will return to value, a few tech growth stocks will skyrocket, and the trend will be long-term. At that time, only investors based on industrial research and value discovery could survive. In the longer term, China's retail-led market transaction structure will gradually be changed by long-term funding from domestic and foreign institutional investors. Conclusion: National wealth and wealth are foreseeable. After the implementation of the new securities law, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing will make full use of the advantages of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and the National Stock Exchange System to attract national and international capital, For your own use. The wealth created and transferred from this will benefit all Chinese. Due to competition, the quality of listed companies has been improved, and trading systems have become increasingly sophisticated. This will lead more medium- and long-term funds to enter. Pensions that have been worrying about returns will complement the high-quality development of the Chinese economy and better protect the huge elderly population in the future. While overseas long-term capital is gradually flowing into China in pursuit of high returns, this will also inject a boost into the development of China's local high-tech industry. Especially what

From 1801 to 2006, the actual return on major US assets, Jeremy J. Siegel's "long-term stock" p11 gold was scarce in the world, urban land was more scarce than gold, and land was more scarce than land Scarce. It is human's endless ability to innovate and organize. These two capabilities are traded by people who use company stock as a carrier. A few people see it because they believe it. Most people dare to believe it only when they see it. Although Zhou is an old country, his life is reform. Five thousand years ago, the Chinese faced the same floods as the Egyptians. Four thousand years ago, the Chinese made bronzes like the Babylonians. Two thousand years ago, the Chinese were as strong as the Romans. Today, the Chinese are at the forefront of the next technological revolution and are determined to make full use of the capital market by using the methods most familiar to the United States. The implementation of the new securities law has depressed a switch that cannot be restarted. Are you ready to read this? Note: Note 1: "Stocks for the Long Run", "Securities Market Red Weekly", Hu Donghui, December 21, 2019, https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s? ID number = 1653503271195327401 Note 2: " The Securities Law Amendment Law establishes a long-term coexistence of registration and approval systems, and the GEM registration system may be difficult to achieve. "Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management, Lou Jiwei, April 30, 2015, http://www.sem.tsinghua.edu. cn / news / xyywcn / TZ_69292.html Note 3: "The full text of the speech by Minister of Finance Lou Jiwei at Tsinghua SEM-the possibility and way to achieve high-speed growth", Xinhua, January 23, 2019. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2019-01/23/content_5360657.htm Note 4: "Presided over the sixth meeting of the Central Comprehensive Deepening Reform Committee" Shanghai Stock Exchange, March 3, 2019 Reference: The long run of stocks, how Jeremy Jessegal works in Asia, Joe Starwell's great game, Qi Bin's why the country succeeds and fails the economy, this article belongs to the 100 million European originals. Please reply to the "reprint" application authorization in the background and contact the relevant operators. Reprinting without authorization is prohibited.