The acceleration of business recovery will promote the improvement of the purchasing managers' index in March.

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Manufacturing production has slowed down across the board. Demand at home and abroad has weakened significantly, affected by the closure of epidemic prevention and control. In February, manufacturing production slowed down across the board. The production, new orders, raw material inventory, employee and supplier delivery times that make up the purchasing manager index are all below 40%, with the lowest being the production index. "The production index fell by 23.5 percentage points to 27.8%, which is 7.7 percentage points lower than the 2008 low affected by the financial crisis." Liu Xuezhi said that during the financial crisis, only some export-oriented enterprises in China's coastal areas were hit hard, and the epidemic Spread across the country. As of February 20, the return rate of workers in 15 cities was only 25.6%, and the rework rate after the Spring Festival in previous years was generally above 80%, which caused the problem of employment difficulties for returning enterprises. On the one hand, the impact of this epidemic on services and construction is greater than on manufacturing. On the other hand, this epidemic caused a sharp decline in consumption during the Spring Festival, and consumer and producer services were greatly affected. Liu Xuezhi said that the epidemic coincided with the Spring Festival holiday and had a great impact on the traditional peak season of annual consumption. The most affected areas are related consumption areas, such as catering, tourism, accommodation, and transportation. The business activity index of the consumer service industry, where transportation, accommodation, catering, tourism and residential services are highly concentrated, has all dropped below 20%. Zhao Qinghe said that of the 21 service industries surveyed, the operating activity index of 19 industries was in the contraction range, while the financial industry's operating activity index was 50.1%, which was still in the expansion range, and played an important role in epidemic prevention and economic and social development. effect. Although the business activity index of the telecommunications and Internet software industries has declined, it is significantly better than the overall level of the service industry, which is 13.2 percentage points and 11.3 percentage points higher than the business activity index of the service industry, and has obtained cloud office, online education and Support for new forms and technologies such as telemedicine. On the other hand, a large number of construction projects are in a state of stoppage, and the post-holiday recovery is slow, resulting in a significant slowdown in the production and operation activities of the construction industry. "Proactive policies are expected to lead to a positive increase in infrastructure investment, but a large number of infrastructure projects are difficult to start due to the epidemic. This epidemic has led to a serious slowdown in real estate sales and construction. Some small and medium-sized real estate companies face the risk of breaking the capital chain. The current real estate development investment growth rate may be negative. "Liu Xuezhi also believes that with the support of stable growth policies, the expected index of civil engineering and construction business activities is 51. 8%, which is still above the prosperity and decline line, indicating that the relevant enterprises are full of confidence in the recovery and development of the industry. The negative impact on production is gradually weakening. Macro policies should be strengthened and steadily increased. Please pay attention to the Financial Times public number for more exclusive news information